The Vig

So the Cards are in second place in the NFC West. And as things sit this week, they actually occupy the final wild card slot. It’s funny how things seem to work out when you’ve got a competent coaching staff and a decent o-line. The game just sort of plays itself. A few bounces the other way, and this team could easily be 7-4 or even 8-3. Of course, a few bounces the other other way and they could be 3-8. The thing is, the improvement is obvious. Edge has benefited from the addition of Levi Brown and second-year man Deuce Lutui. And Warner has been far more consistent than Leinart may ever be.

The NFL, though, is cyclical. Teams that are way up one season tend to take a step back the following season. I don’t think anyone has come up with a satisfactory explanation for this phenomenon. It just is. You want evidence? Take a look at the 2006 Steelers. And how about the Ravens, Chargers, Saints, and Bears this season? All four of those teams won their divisions last year while three won at least 12 games. This year only the Chargers will make the playoffs, and that’s because the rest of the AFC West blows chunks.

So the Cards are flying relatively high right now at 6-6. They need only one more win and a Forty-Niner loss to lock up second in the division. Great, right? A building block, right? Wrong.

Here’s the deal. Next season Leinart will be back. And when he’s not boozing it up with AP reporters in Scottsdale or tagging hot blondes, he’s a trainwreck as an NFL quarterback. There’s a reason the coaching staff platooned him with Warner this season. Despite having Edgerin Freaking James in his backfield, a trio of all-pro receivers to throw to, and a revamped line in front of him, he wasn’t getting the job done. A washed-up Kurt Warner came in and nearly beat the Ravens single handedly and has guided the team to every inch of the success they’ve enjoyed to this point. But next season, it’s going to be Leinart’s team again. And fans will have to suffer through it. So that’s strike two.

Strike three? The schedule. Have you seen it yet? Try this on for size…

Home:
Dallas
NY Giants
Buffalo
Miami
NFC Central #2 (currently Detroit…it will probably be Minnesota)

Away:
Philadelphia
Washington
New England
NY Jets
NFC South #2 (probably New Orleans, although it could be Carolina)

That’s in addition to the Seahawks and Niners twice.  And the Rams won’t be this bad either.  I’m having a hard time finding 8 wins in there.  Dallas and New England will both still be really good.  According to my up-down-up theory, the Jets and Eagles will both be due for bounce back years.  With the exception of New Orleans/Carolina, the road schedule is gonna be chilly.  It’s all stacking up very badly for the Cards in 2008.

2009 looks much more doable as they play the NFC Central and AFC South.  By then, Leinart will be on his last legs in Phoenix as they’ll have either drafted a quarterback in the middle rounds or traded for one, and they’ll have some young stud running back who’ll be ready to replace Edge.  In the meantime, they need to get a defensive end in the draft to take some pressure off the secondary.

How bad will it be in 2008?  Pretty bad.  It’s tough to believe that we’ll be looking back wistfully in a year and reminiscing about the days when “we” were 6-6.  But there it is.